Advisory #4 on Tropical Storm Kirk


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles, mostly north and east of the centre.

Tropical Storm Kirk continues to move quickly toward the Lesser Antilles, where tropical-storm conditions are expected later Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move over the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday afternoon. A pocket of little to no shear will help Kirk gain strength as it moves to the west, but it's going to have a hard time overcoming the strong winds now settled over the Caribbean.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect frost.

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In its discussion of the storm, the agency said Kirk "is predicted to dissipate due to the strong shear over the Caribbean Sea in about 5 days, and several of the reliable global models show this occurring even sooner".

Tropical-storm warnings remain in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Dominica, Martinique and Guadeloupe.

Dominica, according to the National Hurricane Center, which warned that these rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

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Across eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and Saturday.

By weekend, northerly swells generated by Post-Tropical cyclone Leslie, are expected to propagate southwards across our area.

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained surface winds of 74 miles per hour or greater. It has a 90 percent chance of development in the next five days.

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The number of tropical storms and hurricanes increases substantially in August, peaks in mid-September and decreases towards a minimum by early November.